Hari Raya, Chinese New Year, and Deepavali campaigns often fill the top of a subscription funnel. Weeks later, the renewal curve for those cohorts looks softer than the quiet months. Leadership asks what broke.
Separate intent from calendar
Festival cohorts frequently include gifters, bargain hunters, and members who always intended a short stay. Comparing them only to a sleepy February baseline mixes motives. A fairer reading pairs festival cohorts with the previous year’s festival window, then with a non-festival control from the same acquisition channel.
Questions that help
- Did the campaign promise a benefit that ends after the first billing cycle?
- Were annual plans offered with copy that still reads like a one-month trial?
- Did support capacity dip during the same weeks members hit their first renewal?
What not to do
Do not average festival and non-festival cohorts into one “health score” and then panic. App analytics for subscription retention earns trust when it respects the calendar that shaped the acquisition story.
A field habit
In our cohort reviews we ask for campaign names beside the cohort labels. When names include festive keywords, we flag the comparison set before anyone proposes a price response. Sometimes the right move is quieter onboarding for the next festival — not a permanent catalogue change.